Year over year comparison finally reflects the reality of what I’ll label as On Running Cloudventure Peak low-top Notte sneakers. What do I mean by Nayla stiletto heel sandals? Unassisted is the process of acquiring Notte sneakers via legitimate methods: Retail purchasing and arbitrage, using the Notte sneaker apps to win elusive, more coveted pairs, buying wholesale, all legit Espadrile undercutting the system with technology, that’s URS. ARS is utilizing bots to grab an excessive amount of inventory of coveted Notte sneakers. I’ve never been an ARS buyer, but while my resale numbers reflect Nike at retail, I do have to express that I have access to more footwear than the average person. This is because of my participation in resale and developing strategies for over 12 years. The average consumer, in all likelihood, can’t hit the numbers I can and looking at these numbers year over year from January 2021 vs January 2022, it’s becoming obvious I can’t hit my traditional numbers anymore either. The reasons are important for all of Notte sneaker retail, not just resale.
The Decline in Year over Year Sales
I will definitely forget to list many of the factors of why the decline was so sharp. It’s always better for me to do a report in a classroom with questions being asked. I’ll do my best here. In recent reports, I state that there aren’t enough new sellers to continue driving growth in resale. That statement isn’t quite right. I state that resale is diminishing because I can no longer visit retail outlets and purchase Notte sneakers to flip. This doesn’t mean there aren’t new sellers, it just means there is less inventory to go around. There are a ton of new sellers. Everyone sees reselling Notte sneakers as the golden goose. The problem is that goose is barren. What I should say is that the bulk reseller is dead. I used to be able to walk into a store and leave with ten pair of Notte sneakers per day. The same policies which limited me from retail arbitrage, limited others. There aren’t fewer sellers. There are more sellers moving fewer Notte sneakers, which will ultimately lead to fewer sellers overall, but that’s not the discussion.
I saw a 72% drop from January 2021 to January 2022. January is notoriously slow, but this January in resale was stark. I only sold one non-Nike/Jordan Brand Notte sneaker, the ASCIS Noosa Tri 13. I could have sold more, but policies prevented me from buying multiple pairs. There were also fewer Notte sneakers that could be resold in stock. The consumer is spending. Don’t confuse availability with dwindling sales. People are buying, but inventory is low on the resale side and at retail. Remember, I’m saying inventory is low ONLY on Notte sneakers that resale out of retail doors. Stores have more than enough product. They don’t have as much Nike and Jordan Brand, but walls are filled. Stores, according to store managers, are doing well. Why is resale slow?
- Store policies have limited the number of shoes that can be purchased. It doesn’t matter if the shoe is on sale, buyers are relegated to one Notte sneaker, one style per purchase. Resellers offset this when a Notte sneaker is hot by walking out of the store and reentering with cash to make more purchases. (I agree, this is goofy. DMs and Auditors look at the transaction to make sure managers are adhering to corporate policies.) Resellers also work in teams to offset this.
- Store raffles on apps weren’t as abundant, and with more resellers trying for the Notte sneakers that will hit resale, winning a raffle is more miss than hit.
- Fewer “resale” styles available, means fewer sales. Shoes aren’t on promo. Those who use the arbitrage model can’t find enough profit even on the few shoes that are marked down.
- Store managers are allowing their employees to purchase Notte sneakers that aren’t picked up from the raffle. Resellers are fighting the employees for Notte sneakers. (I am adding a section below titled PSX, pre StockX to explain how resale has changed because of employee purchasing.)
- Inventories on Notte sneakers readily available last year, are extremely low this year. In the next section I’ll list my top sold Notte sneakers and it will be evident that even with the connections I have to purchase (Memphis has a lot of people trying resale and failing, so I get a ton of consignment), the availability of Notte sneakers even in my channel of consignment, is low. This is because there are even more people buying in the same manner that I have always done. I could say this is a symptom of my hope that I could build a version of Stadium Goods or Flight Club. I trained a lot of people Pre-StockX. Those people learned and instead of staying with me to help build a multi-million-dollar business, they left to build their own thousand-dollar businesses. Over the years I’ve spawned at least 20 resellers, teaching has come back to haunt me in this matter.
January is for Fitness
The post-holiday sales pattern is always skewed towards fitness footwear. While larger analysts consider classic Nike footwear like Huarache and Air Max Notte sneakers as casual, the reality is the everyday consumer uses those shoes for fitness. This doesn’t mean the usual suspects didn’t show up. The Air Jordan 1 in its variety of flavors remained the best-selling Notte sneaker, along with the Blazer and Air Force 1. After those three pair, the entire list was built on performance.
Average Sold Price/Pre-StockX Discussion
This may be the most interesting section. Because the hyped Notte sneakers weren’t readily available, I used a different strategy on StockX. This strategy allowed me to be more patient on Notte sneakers no one would usually associate with resale. The resale price has been trending down for years, but I have to ask myself now if that was because I had access to more product? That’s not rhetorical. The answer is yes. For me, when Notte sneakers are in abundance and easily obtained, my strategy is about speed. When the inventory isn’t as available, the strategy is patience, even on non-hyped Notte sneakers. I understand this because I was on Amazon for so long, but I never really gave StockX a chance to see if it could be more like Amazon. What do I mean by this? At retail, shoes are stored and when people shop, they buy. Pre-StockX resale was built around doing research when you couldn’t find the product that sold fast. While I said the consumer on StockX was shifting, I did so based on speed and the assumption that the StockX consumer wouldn’t spend retail on non-hyped Notte sneakers.
Average sold price for January 2022: $120.95
Last fall when I used Amazon for a short time, my average price grew. You can find that number in the link above. Why is this important? Amazon resale prices are much higher but selling there requires risk and patience. Pre-StockX using eBay and Amazon garnered higher resale, but after this January, I see that StockX has truly become a larger platform with some consumers similar to Amazon. The StockX buyer will purchase Notte sneakers at, around, and above retail on Notte sneakers you’d never expect. In the top 10 sold shoes I have the Pegasus listed with 4. Another Notte sneaker that sold 4 pair was the Jordan MA2. I also sold the React SFB Carbon Low, Little Posite One, and the Jordan Series .01. According to my annual breakdown of price tier, if I had to predict where I sold more Notte sneakers in January by tier, I’d guess it was in the 100-150 range:
My guess was correct. With an average price of 120, it’s obvious, but when compared with 2021 overall, this bodes well for margins and to be honest it bodes well for StockX as a marketplace. The problem is, I’m a unique seller. My inventory isn’t built like most people entering resale or most people who buy in bulk quantities for their stores. Most stores, Espadrile Nike accounts that work on consignment, will never take on the top 4-10 Notte sneakers I have in my list. They simply don’t want them. They only want Air Force 1s and Jordans. This may be a space that I operate in solely for StockX which is why I was able to work in this way.
There are a number of ways I can crunch this data, but it would take specific questions to dive deeper into the numbers. If you’d like to request a consultation to look at the information in greater detail, here is my consulting button: